THOUGHT (aka Centric's Blog)

I have to be politically correct far too often.

But it amazes me that people are still asking questions like, "So, do you really think virtual worlds will be a big thing?" So, here you go, an unvarnished response:

Yeah. Like, well, duh.

In fact, I’ll go on record as saying today, right now, I think virtual worlds will be a much larger revolution than the entire internet to date. They will fundamentally change the way we meet, the way we work, and the ways we are entertained. The explosive growth we’ve seen to date is a crumb on the hors d’ouevre tray when compared to the feast that’s about to come.

Why? Well, the first internet revolution was one of disconnection. It removed us from the physical. Instead of going to the store to shop, you could do it online and bypass the pesky salesperson. Instead of waltzing down to the local watering hole to gab with the passerby, you could do it on a forum. And instead of spending time at the library, you had instant access to a wide range of information–again, without human contact.

But this is a tool. It may be enormously useful, but it is passionless.

Then, people discovered the internet could do more than deflect you away from the irritating salesman and the strange people you might encounter in the library. It was a place where you could connect with, and communicate with, people who you considered friends. First in the ecosystem of regulars on the message boards, and then through the developing social networks and social media.

And now, in virtual worlds. Virtual worlds are social networks writ large. They’re about connecting. About conversation. About making friends, and seeing them, no matter where they are in the world.

This is engagement, and this is passion.

And you can see it. People are already treating virtual worlds like Second Life as real. "I don’t want that last name," they say, as they register. "I’m embarrassed with all these people around me," they say at orientation. "I want to look great before I go to that presentation," they’ll say, later. And then, "I met the most amazing person and talked with them all night!"

Recall these words: embarrassed, appearance, meeting, talking. Were you ever embarrassed when you went to buy something at Amazon? Did you think about your appearance? Most importantly, did you meet someone there?

We all know the answer. No.

And this is why virtual worlds are the single most important revolution of our time. We’re already acting as if they are real, and we’re sitting in front of a flat screen, navigating with a keyboard, and looking like wooden, emotionless dolls most of the time.

Think about that. We’re participating in worlds that are incredibly early-stage. Second Life still does not have integrated voice. It doesn’t have a dedicated controller. No world has automatic facial and gestural mapping. No world has any immersive elements whatsoever–no iGlasses, no HUDs, no retinal overlays. And we’re operating at the ragged edge of computing horsepower and network speed in order to deliver this extremely limited experience.

But, as today’s Treo or iPhone is significantly more powerful than the Pentium 60s I used to launch Centric, tomorrow’s computers will be able to handle virtualities with ease. And the immersive elements will come.

First, voice. Suddenly, you can communicate, free, with anyone around the world with the nuance of voice and language. The virtual word becomes a much more powerful social space. It becomes a much stronger educational space.

Second, platform. Thank you, Katharine Berry, for opening the door to useful virtual world applications that don’t require a PC. When you can easily access a virtual world from your phone, suddenly they are with you everywhere.

Third, the controller. Suddenly, virtual worlds are much more friendly to the hundreds of millions of people with game consoles.

Fourth, real-time facial expressions and gestural mapping. Suddenly, the virtual world becomes a place you can do real business, because you can see the reactions of your prospective partners or customers. It also becomes the best way to communicate, period, whether it’s business or pleasure.

Fifth, immersive displays. Whether they’re iGlass overlays or direct retinal projection, suddenly the barriers between virtual worlds and the real world are down. We can overlay virtuality on reality and use this as a tool to communicate–or as a means to participate in different consensus realities. At this point, it’s difficult to imagine all the possibilities of a mature virtual worlds platform. Will it end up like 2012 Calling, or Monetized, or Vinge’s Rainbow’s End or Stross’ Accelerando?

Maybe a little of all of those. Maybe something we cannot imagine.

But the change will not be small. Nor will the opportunity.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 11th, 2007 at 1:27 pm and is filed under Ruminations. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.